A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has has something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
