Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: hopeful statements are released from different nations. Considerable effort is expended on containing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from across the border, a capability provided through up-to-date information. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to intercept incoming cruise missiles flew past – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: several firings deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably provided by allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to sober acceptance: maybe the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: several casualties, devastation and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that regional partners are demonstrably unable to fill in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, debate and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from US leadership follows the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington functions according to a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration assumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to abandon the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does minimal to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from believing that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: political desires to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to eliminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
